It's Over, He's The Nominee

The conventional wisdom is shifting, finally, after Obama's resounding victory in North Carolina and narrow loss in Indiana last night.

George McGovern - who is not currently a superdelegate, but will likely be the add-on elected at South Dakota's June convention - endorsed Obama today, saying it's time for the party to unite. Another superdelegate switched from Clinton to Obama today, and Obama's campaign says the magic number to clinch the nomination is 170.

The math is virtually impenetrable for the Clinton campaign at this point, and in 13 days Barack Obama will clinch a majority of pledged delegates. By Memorial Day, Obama will win a majority of the delegates required to clinch the nomination. By the last primary on June 3, Clinton will drop out and endorse Obama.

Hillary Can't Win

The Politico starts to focus in on the emerging reality of the race:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.

Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.

Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.

People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

It seems she wants to play this out until June, but in the coming weeks, I hope Obama's people are pushing superdelegates on this: she can't win the nomination without killing the Democratic Party. Young liberals and African-Americans will desert the Democratic Party, and she will lose in November. The longer she stays in, the more she damages Obama's chances for the fall. She lost this race when she chose to ignore voters in every state that voted after Super Tuesday, focusing on Texas and Ohio instead. The only thing perpetuating the myth of a close nomination contest is the media.

Obama/Richardson?

Bill Richardson endorsed Barack Obama for President today. This is an important endorsement for Obama - Richardson is one of a handful of superdelegates with significant influence in the party. But the most interesting thought I had about Richardson's endorsement was how great he's starting to look on a national ticket. Richardson is not a skilled speaker or traditional attack dog, but Obama's campaign isn't really about fierce attacks, anyway. What Richardson brings to the table? A long resume of extensive foreign policy experience, significant Latino support, and - as a governor - an outsider status that meshes well with Obama's message. The more I think about this potential ticket, the more I like it.

Colbert on Daily Kos, Obama, and McCain

Clinton Surrogate Lanny Davis Betrays Democrats Again

Clinton surrogate Lanny Davis, who helped re-elect John McCain supporter Joe Lieberman in 2006 against the Democratic nominee Ned Lamont, has a couple of idiotic columns today.

First, this:

But many people, including Obama supporters, may still have two questions that Senator Obama's speech did not sufficiently answer, at least in my opinion. And, for any Democrat whose priority is to win back the White House in 2008, they need to be answered now -- because, if Senator Obama ends up the party's nominee (I am a supporter of Senator Clinton's) -- for sure Senator McCain will insist they be answered in the fall.

These two questions are:

1. If a white minister preached sermons to his congregation and had used the "N" word and used rhetoric and words similar to members of the KKK, would you support a Democratic presidential candidate who decided to continue to be a member of that congregation?

2. Would you support that candidate if, after knowing of or hearing those sermons, he or she still appointed that minister to serve on his or her "Religious Advisory Committee" of his or her presidential campaign?

We can no doubt surmise that this is a coordinated strategy on the Clinton campaign's part, as the New York Times reports today:

Mrs. Clinton’s advisers said they had spent recent days making the case to wavering superdelegates that Mr. Obama’s association with Mr. Wright would doom their party in the general election.

That argument could be Mrs. Clinton’s last hope for winning this contest.

But I hope that no one in the Clinton camp approved this tripe:

There are any number of provocative possibilities for a bipartisan ticket in 2008. Imagine the buzz if Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton committed to making the other vice president in the event that either won the election. Pick any combination of other names in the current field of potential candidates: Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Chuck Hagel; Democrat Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Republican Mitt Romney; Democrat John Edwards and Republican Michael Bloomberg; Democrat Bill Richardson and Republican Rudolph W. Giuliani. Any of these bipartisan pairings, in any permutation, would create a stir -- and a dynamite ticket. (Okay, strike one possible combination -- there's no way we'll see a Clinton-Giuliani ticket, or vice versa; not only does the Constitution forbid it, as they're both from the same state, but their personal chemistry would preclude it, too.)

Yeah, let me get this straight: The Republican and Democratic candidates agree on literally nothing. Nothing. For once, there's actually a difference between the parties - and the D.C. class wants them to completely shut off the meaningful debate about Iraq, health care, and a number of real issues, because partisanship is bad?

These type of morons are the worst. I'd expect no less from a Joe Lieberman fan, though.

Mike Huckabee on Obama

An unlikely source of defense for Barack Obama.

Not This Time

I've had a bit of trouble focusing on Nebraska politics at the moment - mostly because the news coming out of our various campaigns has been a little slow. So the Presidential race is taking up a lot of my attention, and today's speech by Barack Obama rose to the occasion. There were a number of significant passages in this speech, but it's this one that gets to the heart of it.

For we have a choice in this country. We can accept a politics that breeds division, and conflict, and cynicism. We can tackle race only as spectacle - as we did in the OJ trial - or in the wake of tragedy, as we did in the aftermath of Katrina - or as fodder for the nightly news. We can play Reverend Wright's sermons on every channel, every day and talk about them from now until the election, and make the only question in this campaign whether or not the American people think that I somehow believe or sympathize with his most offensive words. We can pounce on some gaffe by a Hillary supporter as evidence that she's playing the race card, or we can speculate on whether white men will all flock to John McCain in the general election regardless of his policies.

We can do that.

But if we do, I can tell you that in the next election, we'll be talking about some other distraction. And then another one. And then another one. And nothing will change.

That is one option. Or, at this moment, in this election, we can come together and say, "Not this time." This time we want to talk about the crumbling schools that are stealing the future of black children and white children and Asian children and Hispanic children and Native American children. This time we want to reject the cynicism that tells us that these kids can't learn; that those kids who don't look like us are somebody else's problem. The children of America are not those kids, they are our kids, and we will not let them fall behind in a 21st century economy. Not this time.

This time we want to talk about how the lines in the Emergency Room are filled with whites and blacks and Hispanics who do not have health care; who don't have the power on their own to overcome the special interests in Washington, but who can take them on if we do it together.

This time we want to talk about the shuttered mills that once provided a decent life for men and women of every race, and the homes for sale that once belonged to Americans from every religion, every region, every walk of life. This time we want to talk about the fact that the real problem is not that someone who doesn't look like you might take your job; it's that the corporation you work for will ship it overseas for nothing more than a profit.

This time we want to talk about the men and women of every color and creed who serve together, and fight together, and bleed together under the same proud flag. We want to talk about how to bring them home from a war that never should've been authorized and never should've been waged, and we want to talk about how we'll show our patriotism by caring for them, and their families, and giving them the benefits they have earned.

I would not be running for President if I didn't believe with all my heart that this is what the vast majority of Americans want for this country. This union may never be perfect, but generation after generation has shown that it can always be perfected. And today, whenever I find myself feeling doubtful or cynical about this possibility, what gives me the most hope is the next generation - the young people whose attitudes and beliefs and openness to change have already made history in this election.

Barack Obama is challenging us, challenging his own campaign and supporters, as well as the campaigns and supporters of Hillary Clinton and John McCain - but most of all, the media - to move past the petty politics of division. In essence, Obama makes the point that the superficial charges of racism in this campaign make it impossible for us to have a real discussion of the real issues facing both white and black America.

There is a remarkable consistency in Barack Obama's message, since that very moment when he was introduced to America in August 2004. And the fact that Barack Obama wrote this speech on his own, in two days, showing it only to a handful of trusted advisors, demonstrates the sincerity of the words contained within.

After seven years with a President who can barely form sentences, who can only see things in black and white, and has spent years spinning relentlessly and lying to the American people, wouldn't it be refreshing to have someone like Barack Obama in the White House?

Wouldn't it be incredible to have a President who could inspire the American people? A President who has such a grasp of the real issues facing America that he can speak authoritatively on the issue of race (and in the next two days, Iraq and the economy)?

Wouldn't it be great for all Americans to have a President who understands their concerns, who values people as citizens even if he profoundly disagrees with their beliefs? A President that has shown the judgment and fortitude necessary to lead the nation through troubled times?

Isn't that something that we can all believe in? Isn't that what America is all about?

Obama's speech

I don't know where it ranks in terms of his all-time best, but this was a damn good speech. Minutes after the speech ended, the media predictably ignored its content, focusing instead on the relatively minor issue of Jeremiah Wright. The cynics and partisans will take what they want from this speech, but it's time to believe this is possible. We will not be motivated by fear. We will not be divided. Not this time.

Sunday Notes

The Chicago Tribune examines Obama's Rezko ties - and finds nothing. The money quote:

Obama should have had Friday's discussion 16 months ago. Asked why he didn't, he spoke of learning, uncomfortably, what it's like to live in a fishbowl. That made him perhaps too eager to protect personal information -- too eager to "control the narrative."
Less protection, less control, would have meant less hassle for his campaign. That said, Barack Obama now has spoken about his ties to Tony Rezko in uncommon detail. That's a standard for candor by which other presidential candidates facing serious inquiries now can be judged.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the chair of the Democratic National Convention, says that the superdelegates should not overturn the pledged delegate winner. The majority of superdelegates agree. This is a tremendous help to Barack Obama. If he maintains a pledged delegate lead roughly equal to what he has now, Hillary Clinton will need roughly 2/3 of the remaining superdelegates to break her way in order to win the nomination.

9 Days until Opening Day - Oakland vs. Boston live from Tokyo. Baseball junkies, set your alarm clocks!

UNO moves on to the second round of the NCAA Division II basketball tournament. They play Winona State tonight.

March Madness begins in earnest on Thursday. I couldn't get a ticket to the games here in Omaha, but I will certainly be watching on TV. And filling out yet another disastrous bracket.

And "John Adams" premieres tonight on HBO. Looks very interesting.

Iowa Democratic Conventions

Ben Smith reports that the Obama made significant delegate gains at the Iowa County Conventions today. A campaign conference call claimed that Obama has picked up at least five national delegates based on the projected totals from the conventions.

Mark Halperin has more, with Obama at 23 delegates, and Clinton at 14.

Chuck Todd has Obama with 23, Clinton with 16, and Edwards with 6.

Smith now says it will be Obama 25, Clinton 14, Edwards 6. That's a net gain of 10 delegates.

Obama on Wright

Once again, an effective rejection of Wright's views by Barack Obama - following up his Huffington Post piece and last night's television interviews with this taped message.

But of course, Barack Obama is not the only candidate associated with a religious figure that says extremely offensive things. John McCain, however, has not repudiated - indeed, he has actively sought the endorsement of - these figures.


McCain supporter John Hagee:





McCain supporter Rod Parsley:




So, will we see calls for McCain to renounce these views? I am not holding my breath.